IRA

Moments ago House Republicans joined Senate Republicans in passing H.R. 1, aka the "One Big Beautiful Bill," aka the MAGA Murder Bill, into final passage.

Donald Trump will presumably sign it into law sometime today or perhaps tomorrow...the 4th of July.

Many horrific things are about to happen. On the healthcare front, some will happen sooner (ACA IRA subsidies expire in less than 6 months, and enrollees should start getting hit with sticker shock about that sometime in October); some later (Medicaid "reporting requirements" go into effect after the midterms in late 2026).

A dark day for America, democracy and decency, which was pretty much inevitable when the polls closed on November 5, 2024.

This is what you voted for, America, whether you "meant it" at the time or not.

I'll have more--much more--to say soon, but I'm very tired, very depressed, very angry, very sickened and need some time to gather my thoughts and sanity.

via the NJ Department of Banking and Insurance:

NJ Department of Banking and Insurance Warns of Congressional Reconciliation Bill Package’s Impact on Health Insurance Access 

TRENTON — New Jersey Department of Banking and Insurance Commissioner Justin Zimmerman has sent a letter to New Jersey’s Congressional delegation warning them of the devastating impacts of the reconciliation package on access to quality, affordable health coverage for millions of Americans who need it, including over 513,000 New Jerseyans. The letter follows the U.S. House passage of the reconciliation package on May 22. A version of the bill is currently pending before the U.S. Senate.

The bill package would repeal key provisions of the Affordable Care Act, making it more difficult and expensive to enroll in coverage through Get Covered New Jersey, the State’s Official Health Insurance Marketplace. This legislation would:

via Politico:

Senate GOP tax bill would hit politically explosive Medicaid provision

The Finance Committee is due to brief members on its megabill draft text Monday night.

Senate Republicans are seeking to ratchet up savings from a politically explosive policy within Medicaid to pay for their megabill, and it’s already setting off shockwaves through Capitol Hill.

The Senate Finance Committee’s forthcoming portion of the party-line tax and spending package would lower the Medicaid provider tax to 3.5 percent, according to three people with direct knowledge of the legislation who were granted anonymity to discuss it.

via the National Academy for State Health Policy:

16 Million Americans Would Become Uninsured Due to Reconciliation Bill and Loss of Tax Credits; 8.2 Million in Marketplaces Alone

Leaders from State-based Health Insurance Marketplaces, Enrollees, Providers, and Small Business Highlight Potential, Devastating Impacts

(Washington, DC) The Congressional Reconciliation bill and loss of federal tax credits would result in 16 million Americans losing health coverage, including 8.2 million enrolled in Health Insurance Marketplaces. By stripping millions of lives from the Marketplaces, health care will be more expensive, harder to access, create a strain on health care systems, and hurt small businesses.

via the Maine Bureau of Insurance:

Each year insurers that sell Individual and Small Group plans in Maine's pooled risk market must submit their proposed forms and rates to the Bureau of Insurance, using the System for Electronic Rate and Form Filing (SERFF). Details of the filings submitted to the state since June 10, 2010 can be viewed in the system.

Anthem Health Plans of Maine:

The proposed rates have been developed from 2024 Individual and Small Group ACA combined experience, and the proposed average annual rate change at the Merged Market level is 18.0%.

The proposed annual rate changes by product for Individual range from 17.9% to 20.6%, with rate changes by plan from 10.1% to 30.0%. These ranges are based on the renewing plans, and are consistent with what is reported in the Unified Rate Review Template. Exhibit A shows the rate change for each plan.

Factors that affect the rate changes for all plans include:

A couple of days ago I took a look at the letter sent by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to Democratic ranking committee members which broke out the ~16 million Americans expected to lose healthcare coverage via the #MAGAMurderBill passed by House Republicans, assuming they also fail to extend the IRA tax credits beyond the end of 2025.

There was a lot to unpack there, all of it pretty horrible...but I felt one provision in particular was worth its own separate post:

Funding Cost-Sharing Reductions.

Enacting section 44202 would affect the cost-sharing reductions that the ACA requires insurers to offer to eligible people who purchase silver plans through the marketplaces. Those reductions increase the actuarial value—the average share of covered medical expenses paid by the insurer—above the amount in other silver plans, resulting in lower out-of-pocket costs for eligible enrollees. To be eligible for cost-sharing reductions an enrollee’s income must generally fall between 100 percent and 250 percent of the FPL; the subsidy varies with income.

Via the Massachusetts Division of Insurance:

Merged Market Summary for Proposed Rates Effective for 2026

The following tables depict the proposed overall weighted average premium increase and the key assumptions behind premium development for the merged (individual and small employer) market filed by insurance carriers as part of the Massachusetts Division of Insurance rate review process (for rates effective in 2026). This information is subject to change as the rate review process continues.

The Health Care Access Bureau within the Massachusetts Division of Insurance is currently reviewing these assumptions. This review process will culminate in a final decision in August 2025.

There are 711,563 consumers enrolled in merged (individual/small group) market plans (data as of December 2024).

The Congressional Budget Office has published several projections about how many people would lose healthcare coverage and/or become uninsured (these aren't the same thing) under various versions of the #OneBigUglyBill Act passed by House Republicans, which is currently beginning its next phase over on the Senate side of the Capitol.

Their most recent projection put the total at around 11.7 million when you include some technical weirdness which I'm a little vague about...plus another 3.8 million if you include their projection from December 2024 regarding the impact of the upgraded ACA subsidies included in the Inflation Reduction Act being allowed to expire at the end of this year. This placed the grand total at around 15.5 million...except they more recently sent a letter to the House Energy & Commerce Committee which bumped this estimate up a bit more, putting the combined total at 15.9 million.

via the Oregon Division of Financial Regulation:

Oregonians continue to have at least five health insurance companies to choose from in every Oregon county as companies file 2026 health insurance rate requests for individual and small group markets

  • In-depth rate review process just beginning, opportunities for public review and input remain through June 20

June 2, 2025

Oregon health insurers have submitted proposed 2026 rates for individual and small group plans, launching a months-long review process that includes public input and meetings.

Five insurers will again offer plans statewide (Moda, Bridgespan, PacificSource, Providence, and Regence), and Kaiser is offering insurance in 11 counties, giving six options to choose from in various areas around the state. 

This just in via the Maryland Insurance Administration:

Health Carriers Propose Affordable Care Act Premium Rates for 2026

  • Anticipated loss of federal enhanced premium tax credits leads to highest individual market rate increases proposed since the start of Maryland’s reinsurance program

BALTIMORE – The Maryland Insurance Administration has received the 2026 proposed premium rates for Affordable Care Act products offered by health and dental carriers in the individual, non-Medigap and small group markets, which impact approximately 502,000 Marylanders.

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