Ever since the MAGA Murder Bill (officially H.R. 1, the so-called "One Big Beautiful Bill Act") was passed by Republicans in the U.S. Senate & House and signed into law by Donald Trump a few days ago, I've seen a growing conventional wisdom taking hold on social media: People keep claiming that either all, "nearly all"or at least "most of" the budget cuts & other gutting of various programs and departments won't actually kick in until after the November 2026 midterms.
Now, don't get me wrong--most of those making these claims are well-intentioned; they're saying this cynically, to underscore how disingenuous Congressional Republicans are by back-loading the pain until the midterms are safely in their rearview mirrors. And, to be fair, much of the damage won't being until well after next November.
Over at The New Republic, Greg Sargent has taken this thinking one step further, noting that by delaying so much of the ugliness of the new law until 2027 or beyond...
It was in early 2021 that Congressional Democrats passed & President Biden signed the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA), which among other things dramatically expanded & enhanced the original premium subsidy formula of the Affordable Care Act, finally bringing the financial aid sliding income scale up to the level it should have been in the first place over a decade earlier.
In addition to beefing up the subsidies along the entire 100 - 400% Federal Poverty Level (FPL) income scale, the ARPA also eliminated the much-maligned "Subsidy Cliff" at 400% FPL, wherein a household earning even $1 more than that had all premium subsidies cut off immediately, requiring middle-class families to pay full price for individual market health insurance policies.
Here's what the original ACA premium subsidy formula looked like compared to the current, enhanced subsidy formula:
In early 2021, Congressional Democrats & President Biden passed the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA), which dramatically expanded & enhanced the original premium subsidy formula of the Affordable Care Act, finally bringing the financial aid sliding income scale up to the level it should have been in the first place over a decade earlier. They then extended the subsidy upgrade out by another 3 years via the Inflation Reduction Act.
In addition to beefing up the subsidies along the entire 100 - 400% Federal Poverty Level (FPL) income scale, the upgrade eliminated the much-maligned "Subsidy Cliff" at 400% FPL, wherein a household earning even $1 more than that had all premium subsidies cut off immediately, requiring middle-class families to pay full price for individual market health insurance policies.
In early 2021, Congressional Democrats & President Biden passed the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA), which dramatically expanded & enhanced the original premium subsidy formula of the Affordable Care Act, finally bringing the financial aid sliding income scale up to the level it should have been in the first place over a decade earlier. They then extended the subsidy upgrade out by another 3 years via the Inflation Reduction Act.
In addition to beefing up the subsidies along the entire 100 - 400% Federal Poverty Level (FPL) income scale, the upgrade eliminated the much-maligned "Subsidy Cliff" at 400% FPL, wherein a household earning even $1 more than that had all premium subsidies cut off immediately, requiring middle-class families to pay full price for individual market health insurance policies.
It was in early 2021 that Congressional Democrats passed & President Biden signed the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA), which among other things dramatically expanded & enhanced the original premium subsidy formula of the Affordable Care Act, finally bringing the financial aid sliding income scale up to the level it should have been in the first place over a decade earlier.
In addition to beefing up the subsidies along the entire 100 - 400% Federal Poverty Level (FPL) income scale, the ARPA also eliminated the much-maligned "Subsidy Cliff" at 400% FPL, wherein a household earning even $1 more than that had all premium subsidies cut off immediately, requiring middle-class families to pay full price for individual market health insurance policies.
Here's what the original ACA premium subsidy formula looked like compared to the current, enhanced subsidy formula:
It was in early 2021 that Congressional Democrats passed & President Biden signed the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA), which among other things dramatically expanded & enhanced the original premium subsidy formula of the Affordable Care Act, finally bringing the financial aid sliding income scale up to the level it should have been in the first place over a decade earlier.
In addition to beefing up the subsidies along the entire 100 - 400% Federal Poverty Level (FPL) income scale, the ARPA also eliminated the much-maligned "Subsidy Cliff" at 400% FPL, wherein a household earning even $1 more than that had all premium subsidies cut off immediately, requiring middle-class families to pay full price for individual market health insurance policies.
Here's what the original ACA premium subsidy formula looked like compared to the current, enhanced subsidy formula:
More congressional Republicans are saying they could support a limited extension of enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies — but only as part of a wider deal and with possible new limits to the assistance.
Why it matters: Democrats are pushing for a clean extension, but the more realistic path, if there's one at all, is a short-term extension that includes conservative health policies.
What they're saying: "How many clean extensions have you seen of late?" said Sen. Thom Tillis, who began pushing for a subsidy extension in the spring. He added that he didn't know what the contours of a deal could look like.
...Changes that could make an extension more palatable for Republicans include limiting the subsidies for higher-income enrollees or requiring that all enrollees pay at least some cost-sharing or premiums.
Last winter, I initiated an ambitious project in which I generated graphics to illustrate just how much net ACA premiums are likely to increase starting on January 1st, 2026 (slightly over 5 months from today) assuming the enhanced premium subsidies provided by the Inflation Reduction Act over the past several years are allowed to expire.
This project took several months to complete, as I had to generate both tables and bar graphs for all 50 states (+DC), using 4 different households at multiple income brackets for each. All told, that's over 1,600 different examples.
I made sure to include various caveats for these projections. For instance, each of these examples assumes...
Our survey of voters in the most competitive Congressional Districts shows Republicans have an opportunity to overcome a current generic ballot deficit and take the lead by extending the healthcare premium tax credits for those who purchase health insurance for themselves. Without Congressional action, the tax credit expires this year.
Moments ago House Republicans joined Senate Republicans in passing H.R. 1, aka the "One Big Beautiful Bill," aka the MAGA Murder Bill, into final passage.
Donald Trump will presumably sign it into law sometime today or perhaps tomorrow...the 4th of July.
Many horrific things are about to happen. On the healthcare front, some will happen sooner (ACA IRA subsidies expire in less than 6 months, and enrollees should start getting hit with sticker shock about that sometime in October); some later (Medicaid "reporting requirements" go into effect after the midterms in late 2026).
A dark day for America, democracy and decency, which was pretty much inevitable when the polls closed on November 5, 2024.
This is what you voted for, America, whether you "meant it" at the time or not.
I'll have more--much more--to say soon, but I'm very tired, very depressed, very angry, very sickened and need some time to gather my thoughts and sanity.
